Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
