Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
